I hope that 2023 is better than what I think. We are facing some economic challenges, but I am excited to see the amazing technologies that will be available this year.
The CES will be the big show of the year. From what I’ve seen in the pre-briefings, it looks like there’s a lot of cool technology coming this year.
This week, let’s look at a few of them. Next week, I’ll be able to cover my first Product for the Week in 2023 because this column is already full.
The economy of 2023 looks ugly
The past few years were not great, and it’s mainly because governments did not deal well with the pandemic. When people returned from the shutdown, they wanted to purchase things, creating an imbalance between demand and supply. This led to government agencies raising interest rates.
In 2023, it looks like the chickens will come home to roost. The combination of buyers without money and improved manufacturing capabilities will lead to an excessive amount of inventory, which I expect will accelerate layoffs.
Vendors should ramp up their marketing to generate demand in order to grab as much market share as possible. Most will ignore the Business 101 lesson, and instead reduce demand generation. This will allow those who did audit Business 101, to gain significant market share at the expense those who cut marketing.
I believe 2023 will once again demonstrate that demand management needs both a carrot (high interest rates on borrowing) and astick (high interest rates on saving). It is necessary to make more effort to change perceptions in order to have a rapid enough shift in buying behavior to alleviate the problem.
In addition to changing interest rates, communicating effectively with citizens and getting them to modify their behavior in a timely manner would have a greater impact, more quickly, on this type of problem, which is inherently behavior-based.
Wars
China’s problems will continue to be a major problem, largely due to the fact that its Covid response is failing and because its government refuses help. China’s vaccines are ineffective but they don’t seek out foreign vaccines. Instead, they try to deal with the influx of sick people.
This could lead to a war against Taiwan, which would be ill-advised and distract attention from domestic problems. The lack of effectiveness in vaccines points to a bigger problem that China and other countries face: the tendency to hide problems rather than confront them. All of this suggests that China, like Russia, may not have the military capabilities to perform at the level Chinese leaders expect.
Although the war dynamics with Taiwan might seem very different than the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian and Chinese governments are both equally adept at covering up their problems, which could lead to a similar impasse between the two countries. While the conflict continues, exports and manufacturing from China and Taiwan will suffer and create a new supply chain problem.
The companies are taking aggressive measures to reduce their exposure. However, most of the programs that I have seen, such as the CHIPS Act will not be fully matured until 2025. This leaves us vulnerable in 2023. Ukraine’s manufacturing capacity isn’t expected to recover until at least two years after the end of the war. As this has not yet happened, it is likely that there will continue to be shortages in Ukrainian manufacturing until 2023. This includes ASIC chips, which are a vital part of many electronics including cars.
Electric Cars
Electric charging will become more advanced in 2023, and the next generation of battery and engine technology will begin to hit the market. This will bring with it improved performance and range. We will still fall short in making electric cars the perfect replacement for gas-powered vehicles, especially when it comes down to range.
We will still see a rise in the number of electric vehicles and improvements to driver assistance, as well as entertainment features within cars. It still appears that the biggest changes will occur in 2024, for the line of 2025 cars to be launched that year.
Imagine 2023 as being the final year for the current generation of electric cars and 2024 as being the start of the next wave of electric vehicles, which will most likely be released in 2025.
In 2023 I would buy used rather than new, anticipating the significant changes that will be made for the model year 2025. Except for cars made by vendors such as Rivian or Lucid. These companies are creating what we can call next-generation cars, and they are aware of the unique risks that come with buying cutting edge technology.
Personal Flying Vehicles
The market will soon be flooded with electric flying recreational vehicles. Some of them have already appeared.
They use drone technology, but scaled up for humans. This results in relatively simple builds, and there are no real skills required to fly them under a recreational license. We get complaints from people flying ultralights over homes where I live. I am sure that will continue with these new vehicles.
They still look like they’re a lot of fun. I’m tempted myself to buy one as a summer toy and, assuming that I can handle winter, as a near-perfect all terrain vehicle. Just make sure you don’t lose power at high altitude.
Personal Computers
Throughout the year, PCs will be modified to have rolling screens instead of multiple screens. Rolling screens have been teased in recent announcements.
It could be a game-changer for those who are envious of the screen sizes of current laptops.
Expect to see more efficient chargers and a greater focus on sustainability in general.
This year, the industry will likely be experiencing a period of low sales due to massive overbuying in the past few years.
Smartphones
When the new Apple iPhone launches, I will talk about it.
You can expect to see rollable screens before the end of the year, and improved camera software that will make you look better. It will also help you create avatars with better looks.
Before the end of this year, we will see improvements in real-time video streaming and AI-based digital assistants.
Since Siri’s launch, conversational AI has significantly improved. We should start seeing its benefits on most platforms by next year.
As the year progresses, look for wireless charging improvements in premium-line phones.
Videoconferencing and Collaboration
This segment was ruined by the confusion over whether people would stay home or go back to work. I still don’t think there is any light at the other end.
Solutions will therefore be varied, some focusing on the improvement of the experience in large spaces, while others are aimed at the home.
Zoom will have much better tools for audience monitoring, including better audio isolation, improved camera tracking, and better microphones. This is likely to get people who play video games on Zoom calls into trouble (yes, you know that this happens).
At least one vendor will likely develop a unique solution to the placement issue with built-in cameras and aftermarket camera.
Metaverse
Meta’s first implementation of the metaverse has left it in a muddle. Ironically, once the metaverse matures, it will be able to communicate a future vision better than any previous technology.
Meta may finally realize this and begin to show what it will become, rather than displaying where it is. Nvidia is doing this in the commercial sector for some time, but it hasn’t reached most people yet.
If Meta does not communicate a vision for the future, then the consumer side will decline by 2023. They will be waiting for a company that can blend the power of metaverse with its ability to communicate its benefits, and the compelling nature what it will become.
Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
2023 will be an important year for AI, robotics and other technologies. I group these technologies together because 2023 will be a huge year for AI and robotics.
I expect to see more robotic assistants, robot security solutions and snow blowers. We will also see more robot bartenders and french fry machines. The first realistic prototypes for automated fast-food restaurant are also expected.
By the end of 2023 we will have a better understanding of how robotics is evolving and what it means for us.
Artificial intelligence will be used in an increasing number of areas, including the health care sector. AI will be used more to develop new cures and remedies, and create conversational AI interfaces that can help patients who need assistance more quickly than medical staff. As I type this, I am just recovering from the flu. I’m looking forward to these improvements in medical AI.
Televisions
In 2023, we will see the first 8K TVs and more affordable rollable displays in limited editions. There have been 8K TVs and rollable displays before, but they were mostly prototypes. Both technologies have now moved into production and will be available at a high-end price.
The improvement in upscales will make 8K TVs less problematic than the 4K ones that preceded it. These sets will certainly be popular, but sales will probably be hindered by the cost until they become more affordable than I anticipate in 2023. It is possible that at least one of these technologies could be mainstream by the end the year.
I believe that it is more likely 2025 will be when 8K TVs and rollable displays show their full potential. It will take a minimum of that time to reach a critical mass in content and rollable display manufacturing to offer the convergence of technology and content as a value for the buyer.
Wrapping up
These predictions are not exhaustive. I did not mention the shift from air travel to rail in Europe, which will accelerate next, or the possible failure of Twitter, due to what I personally predict as Elon Musk making a bad choice for the new CEO. I also didn’t discuss the advances in broadcast power and microgrids in the coming year. The renewed promise of fusion energy is also something to look forward to, but I think that it will be a while before we see any large-scale trials.
I haven’t mentioned robotic humans, such as robotic companions, because I find them creepy. I also didn’t mention autonomous vehicles, because they won’t be available in large numbers until 2025. Or robotic pets, because these will also become more prominent in the future. The use of robotics in farming, the development of vertical farms and advances in disease detection will all be on-going trends.
I think that 2023 will be a particularly tough year for companies who either don’t know what market they’re in, or cut back on funding demand generation, which allows their competitors to get around them.
Imagine the year as musical chairs, but with money in place of chairs. The pool of spending dollars will shrink, and companies that do not fight for every dollar will fail.
I wish you all the best in the coming year. However, for many it may be realistic to just get through 2023.